Rohingya Fear Renewed Repatriation Effort Amid Ongoing Instability
- Rohingya Cultural Advocacy Centre
- Dec 14, 2025
- 4 min read
Rohingya Cultural Advocacy Centre Report:
Cox’s Bazar / Dhaka,
New anxiety is rising among Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh over possible future repatriation plans that could involve armed groups, as community members say they have heard rumors of such proposals, though no official Bangladesh government policy confirming this has been announced.
🔗 Background on repatriation debates:
Repeated Repatriation Failures: Over the past Nine years, Bangladesh and Myanmar have attempted multiple repatriation initiatives, but those efforts repeatedly stalled because refugees firmly demanded safe return with full citizenship rights, a condition never guaranteed in negotiations. Planned returns in 2018 and 2019 collapsed after refugees refused to go back without rights or security assurances.
🔗 Failed repatriation attempts explained:
Most Rohingya fled violence in Myanmar’s Rakhine State following the August 2017 military crackdown, a campaign widely described by international observers as ethnic cleansing and genocide, which forced more than 740,000 Rohingya into Bangladesh.
🔗 UN genocide findings:
https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/documents/atrocity-crimes/Doc.26_Myanmar%20FFM%20Report.pdf
🔗 Amnesty International report:
I believe there is a possibility that the Bangladesh government may use ARSA as part of future repatriation efforts. Although this is not a confirmed policy and remains a concern rather than a fact, this perception has caused deep anxiety in my heart.
Over the last nine years, the Bangladesh government has planned four times to send the Rohingya back to Myanmar without guaranteeing our citizenship rights. They held talks with the Myanmar authorities, but these attempts failed because the Rohingya refused to return to their homeland without citizenship and legal protection.
We will return to our own country only with our full citizenship rights. The Myanmar government committed genocide against us and expelled us from our homeland five times, which is why we became refugees in Bangladesh. If the Bangladesh government had returned us without citizenship rights, the Myanmar authorities would again have had the opportunity to commit genocide against us.
We have repeatedly requested the international community to hold accountable and punish those who committed genocide against the Rohingya. We have lived in refugee camps in Bangladesh for nine years so that we can seek justice, obtain a fair trial, and return to our country with our rights restored.
Since 1991, many Rohingya refugees like us have been living in Bangladesh, and they have still not been able to return to their homeland.
After the military coup on February 21, 2021, there was a legitimate government in Myanmar.
On August 5, 2024, another armed group, the Arakan Army, carried out a second wave of genocide against Rohingya Muslim minorities in Rakhine State. As a result, about 150,000 Rohingya were again forced to flee to Bangladesh, abandoning everything they owned.
Because Myanmar lacks a designated and stable government, there is no assurance that we can safely return.
After failing five times to repatriate the Rohingya, the Bangladesh government is now trying to develop another plan.
They are considering sending a small number of Rohingya back to Myanmar, whether under the control of the Arakan Army or the Myanmar military. It is not yet decided when this will happen. It could take several more years, or it could happen in 2026.
There are concerns that some ARSA members or their supporters on Rohingya social media may be used to promote repatriation campaigns. The Bangladesh government has arrested ARSA chief commander Ataullah and is keeping him imprisoned. There is information suggesting that pressure may be applied, implying that if assistance is given in sending back some Rohingya, their commander could be released; otherwise, he may remain imprisoned for many years.
Despite limited diplomatic engagement ,including Myanmar confirming that around 180,000 Rohingya are “eligible” for return refugees remain unconvinced that conditions are safe, voluntary, or just.🔗 Reuters report:
Conflict and Humanitarian Pressures Undermine Return Prospects; Myanmar remains deeply unstable following the February 2021 military coup, with no functioning civilian government and widespread armed conflict across the country. 🔗 Myanmar coup overview:
In Rakhine State, the Rohingya’s historic homeland, the Arakan Army (AA) has seized large areas, and ongoing fighting has made the security environment highly unpredictable.
🔗 Arakan Army control of Rakhine:
A recent airstrike on a hospital in Rakhine State killed dozens of civilians, highlighting the ongoing dangers for any potential returnees.
🔗 AP News report: https://apnews.com/article/a172351a33cfd747d71fba740f1c0882
Amnesty International and other rights groups warn that northern Rakhine is unsafe for Rohingya return, citing forced labour, movement restrictions, and active conflict.
🔗 Amnesty warning on repatriation risks:
Rohingya Voices: Rights, Justice, and Identity: Rohingya refugees consistently state they will not return without citizenship rights, justice for genocide crimes, and international guarantees of safety. 🔗 Rohingya demands explained:
In August 2025, tens of thousands of Rohingya marked the anniversary of their exodus, demanding dignified return with citizenship, not forced displacement.🔗 Anniversary coverage:https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/25/rohingya-refugees-mark-anniversary-of-exodus
International leaders and rights groups stress that repatriation must be voluntary, safe, and sustainable, standards that have not yet been met.🔗 Human Rights Watch position:
Security Concerns: Armed Groups and Refugee Vulnerability. Ongoing insecurity, poverty, and prolonged displacement have left Rohingya youth vulnerable to criminal and militant recruitment, according to multiple security analysts.🔗 International Crisis Group report: https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar-bangladesh/348-bangladeshmyanmar-dangers-rohingya-insurgency
Bangladesh authorities have previously arrested individuals linked to militant activity inside camps, highlighting the complex security challenges surrounding the refugee crisis.🔗 Reuters on camp security: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/bangladesh-arrests-rohingya-militants-camps-2022-10-18/
Uncertain Future for Rohingya Refugees, With Myanmar’s civil war ongoing, renewed displacement from Rakhine in 2024, and no internationally recognized government capable of guaranteeing rights, there is no assurance of safe return.🔗 New displacement from Rakhine:
Bangladesh is now reportedly exploring alternative plans after multiple repatriation failures, though timelines remain unclear and could extend into 2026 or beyonds, years 🔗 Dhaka’s repatriation dilemma: https://www.thedailystar.net/news/bangladesh/news/rohingya-repatriation-unlikely-amid-myanmars-civil-war-3886386
Rohingya leaders warn that any attempt to return refugees without citizenship, justice, and international protection risks repeating past atrocities.
Claims regarding the use of ARSA members, social‑media influence, or bargaining involving detained leaders are community‑reported concerns and not confirmed by public sources. They should be treated as allegations requiring independent investigation.
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